Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Oct. 8 that he anticipates more interest rate hikes if economic data keep coming in as expected. He described the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) as a signal for policymakers. The SEP collects the projections that Fed participants submit. His own forecast is a separate, conditional view. The hikes he expects need not come at consecutive meetings. They should still be in place within an acceptable period of time.
Key facts from Waller's Oct. 8 speech
- September decision: The Federal Open Market Committee raised its policy rate 25 basis points, to a range of 3.75 percent to 4 percent.
- Rest of the year: 16 of the 18 participants who submitted projections anticipated at least one more hike at the year's two remaining meetings.
- Two more hikes: Four of those 16 participants expected two additional hikes.
- Market odds, one hike: Futures prices as of the previous day implied an 85 percent chance of at least one hike by the end of the December meeting.
- Market odds, two hikes: The same prices implied nearly a 20 percent chance of two hikes by then.
- His outlook: More hikes if the data continue as expected, to support a timelier return of inflation to the 2 percent goal.
What changed in September
Waller recounted that in September the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise its policy rate. The move was 25 basis points. It put the rate in a range of 3.75 percent to 4 percent. The increase came after nine months in which the committee held the rate steady. His outlook ties any further hikes to incoming economic data. The goal he named is a timelier return of inflation to the Fed's 2 percent target.
How the signal works
Waller said the SEP is serving a signaling role for policymakers. In his view, that signaling helps anchor the path of short-term interest rates. It also allows rate hikes to be adjusted as incoming data arrive. He cited the projections that participants submitted. He also cited futures prices for the federal funds rate.
What the projections show
Waller said 16 of the 18 participants who submitted projections anticipated at least one more hike. That view covered the two meetings left in the year. Four of those 16 expected two additional hikes. The counts are nested. The four are part of the 16, which are part of the 18. He cited these counts to illustrate the SEP's signaling role.
What futures prices show
Waller cited futures prices for the federal funds rate as of the day before his speech. He said they implied an 85 percent chance of at least one hike by the end of the FOMC's December meeting. They also implied nearly a 20 percent chance of two hikes by then. These odds come from market prices, not from officials' projections. The participant counts and the market odds each have their own basis and horizon. Both differ from the decision already taken in September.
The September decision and the rate signals Waller cited
How do the September decision, the participant projections and the futures odds differ in who they measure and when they apply?
| Signal | What it measures | Figure Waller cited | Time horizon | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September FOMC decision | Vote by the Federal Open Market Committee | Raised 25 basis points to 3.75 percent to 4 percent | Already taken in September | Source: Federal Reserve, Oct 8, 2026 |
| Projections: at least one more hike | Participants who submitted projections | 16 of 18 participants | The year's two remaining meetings | Source: Federal Reserve, Oct 8, 2026 |
| Projections: two more hikes | Participants who anticipated at least one more hike | four of those 16 participants | The year's two remaining meetings | Source: Federal Reserve, Oct 8, 2026 |
| Futures: at least one hike | Futures prices as of the day before the speech | 85 percent chance | By the end of the December FOMC meeting | Source: Federal Reserve, Oct 8, 2026 |
| Futures: two hikes | Futures prices as of the day before the speech | nearly 20 percent chance | By the end of the December FOMC meeting | Source: Federal Reserve, Oct 8, 2026 |
Participant counts and futures odds come from different groups on different bases, so the figures are not equivalent measures of the same thing.
Analysis: a direction without a calendar
The figures Waller cited point the same way. Most participants who submitted projections leaned toward at least one more hike. Futures prices, as he described them, gave high odds of at least one hike by December. His own forecast rests on the data continuing as expected. That makes it a conditional view rather than a promise. He did not name a meeting for the next move. He said the hikes need not come at consecutive meetings. On his account, the signal anchors expectations without locking the FOMC into a calendar. For rate watchers, that puts the weight on the direction across several meetings rather than on any single date.
Limitations
The futures odds come from Waller's account of the prior day's prices, and his forecast is his own view, not an FOMC decision.
Read the full speech
The full speech on the Federal Reserve Board's website explains why Waller sees the SEP as a signal. It also sets out how he thinks the approach leaves room to adjust hikes as data arrive. Next, watch incoming economic data and the two FOMC meetings left this year. His forecast of more hikes depends on the data continuing as expected.
Sources: Federal Reserve, Oct 8, 2026
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