Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on October 8, 2026, in a speech at the Istanbul Economic Forum, that "if the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes" to support a timelier return of inflation to the Fed's 2 percent goal. He attached two conditions: the data must keep matching the outlook, and the course of policy "is not predetermined." He left the timing open. The hikes, he said, "do not need to come at consecutive meetings," though they should be in place within an acceptable period of time. He also noted that the views were his own, not necessarily those of his colleagues on the Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Where policy stands
On September 16, 2026, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The vote was 12 to 0. The statement said inflation "remains elevated" and that the move would support a timelier return to the 2 percent goal. On the labor market, it said job gains had kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate had changed little.
Waller described the hike as coming after nine months in which the committee held the rate steady. In his speech he called the labor market stable and inflation too high, citing August data with core PCE inflation at 3 percent over 12 months.
What the projections and futures showed
Waller argued that the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) is serving a signaling role: it points to a likely destination for rates while leaving the pace and size of moves dependent on data. He cited two sets of numbers.
Participant projections
- 16 of the 18 participants who submitted projections anticipated at least one more hike this year.
- Four of those 16 expected two additional hikes.
The September SEP tables match his count. For year-end 2026, 12 participants placed the federal funds rate at a midpoint of 4.125 percent (one more quarter-point hike), four at 4.375 percent (two more), and two at 3.875 percent (no further change). The median projections were:
| Measure | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Federal funds rate (median) | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| PCE inflation | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| Core PCE inflation | 3.4% | 2.5% |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 4.1% |
Futures pricing
Citing futures prices as of the day before his speech, Waller said traders saw an 85 percent chance of at least one hike by the end of the FOMC's December meeting and nearly a 20 percent chance of two hikes. These are market-implied odds as he reported them, not official projections, and they refer to a different group and basis than the participant counts.
The meetings left this year
Two FOMC meetings remain in 2026: October 27-28 and December 8-9. Only the December meeting comes with a new SEP. Waller did not name either meeting for a move.
The September decision and the rate signals Waller cited
How do the September decision, the participant projections and the futures odds differ in who they measure and when they apply?
| Signal | What it measures | Figure Waller cited | Time horizon | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September FOMC decision | Vote by the Federal Open Market Committee | Raised 25 basis points to 3.75 percent to 4 percent | Already taken in September | Source: Federal Reserve, Oct 8, 2026 |
| Projections: at least one more hike | Participants who submitted projections | 16 of 18 participants | The year's two remaining meetings | Source: Federal Reserve, Oct 8, 2026 |
| Projections: two more hikes | Participants who anticipated at least one more hike | four of those 16 participants | The year's two remaining meetings | Source: Federal Reserve, Oct 8, 2026 |
| Futures: at least one hike | Futures prices as of the day before the speech | 85 percent chance | By the end of the December FOMC meeting | Source: Federal Reserve, Oct 8, 2026 |
| Futures: two hikes | Futures prices as of the day before the speech | nearly 20 percent chance | By the end of the December FOMC meeting | Source: Federal Reserve, Oct 8, 2026 |
Participant counts and futures odds come from different groups on different bases, so the figures are not equivalent measures of the same thing.
What the Fed's framework says
The FOMC defines price stability as inflation of 2 percent over the longer run, measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures. Maximum employment is described as the highest level of employment the economy can sustain in a context of price stability. The committee's current Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy was revised on August 22, 2025.
Waller set out three ways to communicate the path ahead: say nothing, commit to a fixed schedule of hikes, or signal a likely destination while keeping the pace flexible. He favored the third, saying that locking in a path over a long period "is unlikely to lead to good outcomes."
What could change the outlook
Waller did not give explicit thresholds. He said incoming data could suggest "going faster or slower." The September minutes add detail on the committee's risk view:
- Participants generally saw inflation risk as skewed to the upside.
- Risks to the labor market were seen as broadly balanced.
- The longer energy prices stayed elevated, the greater the inflation risk, according to the minutes.
- Further tariff increases were listed as an upside risk to inflation.
- Most participants judged that another increase would likely be appropriate by year end, and future decisions would depend on incoming information.
In his speech, Waller also pointed to the Middle East conflict, high energy prices, price pressures linked to AI, and tariff risks as reasons inflation progress stalled in 2026.
What it means for markets
Waller said markets estimate the path FOMC voters consider appropriate in order to price various assets, and that a mismatch can mean financial conditions have too little or too much effect on activity. That is the channel through which a signal like his reaches asset prices, including risk assets such as crypto. The September minutes noted that stock market gains had supported consumer spending.
