You can't make crypto prices go your way, but you can control how much you lose to things that aren't luck at all: scams, theft, leverage and rushed decisions. In 2025 those losses were very large. The FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) recorded $7.2 billion in reported losses to cryptocurrency investment fraud in the United States, the biggest single loss category in its 2025 report. Chainalysis estimates that crypto scams worldwide took in at least $14 billion on-chain in 2025, and says the total could exceed $17 billion. For most people, "success without luck" means avoiding these losses, sizing risk so a crash doesn't force a sale, and following a written process instead of a prediction.
What the 2025 loss data shows
Scams are the biggest threat to retail holders
Chainalysis published its 2025 scam estimate on 13 January 2026:
- Confirmed on-chain scam revenue was at least $14 billion. The projected total could exceed $17 billion, up from a recalculated $12 billion for 2024.
- The average scam payment rose from $782 in 2024 to $2,764 in 2025, a 253% increase.
- Impersonation scams grew by more than 1,400% year on year.
- Scam operations with on-chain links to AI vendors took in about $3.2 million each. Operations without those links took in about $719,000, so the AI-linked operations earned roughly 4.5 times as much.
The FBI's 2025 IC3 report, released in April 2026, recorded 1,008,597 complaints and close to $21 billion in reported losses across all cybercrime, 26% more than in 2024. Cryptocurrency investment fraud accounted for $7.2 billion of that. Schemes involving cryptocurrency caused more than 42,000 older victims to lose $4.3 billion.
Theft hits individuals, not only platforms
Chainalysis put total crypto theft in 2025 at more than $3.4 billion (report dated 18 December 2025). At least $2.02 billion of it is attributed to hackers linked to North Korea. One attack in February 2025 accounted for about $1.5 billion on its own. The figure that matters most to ordinary holders is smaller: Chainalysis counted 158,000 personal wallet compromises affecting at least 80,000 unique victims, with $713 million stolen from individuals.
Step 1: Learn to spot a scam before you put in money
The US Federal Trade Commission's guidance covers most of what you need:
- "Only scammers demand payment in cryptocurrency." Government agencies and legitimate businesses don't ask for crypto, even when they say your account is at risk.
- "Only scammers will guarantee profits or big returns." Celebrity endorsements and testimonials can be faked.
- Never click a link in a text, email or social media message you weren't expecting.
- "Never mix online dating and investment advice." The FBI describes a common pattern: a contact made on social media or a dating app moves the victim to a fake platform that shows invented profits, then asks for "fees" or "taxes" before any withdrawal.
- Crypto payments usually can't be reversed. Once funds leave your wallet, you generally get them back only if the recipient sends them back.
Since impersonation grew more than fourteenfold in 2025, check every "official" message through a channel you find yourself, not one the message gives you.
Step 2: Secure what you own
The FTC warns that if you lose your wallet password, or your wallet is stolen or compromised, you will probably find that no one can help you recover the funds. The practical rules follow from that:
- Keep the recovery phrase offline. Never type it into a website or share it with anyone, whoever they say they are.
- Use app-based or hardware two-factor authentication rather than SMS wherever the service supports it.
- Test a recovery from your backup with a small amount before you rely on it.
- Don't sign wallet transactions you didn't start, and read what a signature approves.
How much of your margin does one move take?
Enter a leverage level and a price move against your position to see how much of your margin is gone, before fees and maintenance margin.
| Leverage on the position | Price move against your position | Share of your margin lost on that move |
|---|---|---|
| 10 x | 2 % | 20 % |
| 10 x | 10 % | 100 % |
| 50 x | 2 % | 100 % |
- Leverage and price-move values are your own inputs, not figures from any source.
- The result ignores fees and maintenance margin, as the article's own 10x and 50x examples do. Real liquidation comes earlier than the 100% shown here.
This is simple arithmetic on your inputs. It leaves out fees, funding and maintenance margin, so it understates the risk and cannot tell you when a position would really be liquidated.
Step 3: Decide in advance how you'll buy, and know what the evidence says
The old version of this article claimed that dollar-cost averaging (DCA) beats lump-sum investing. That's not what the best-known study found. In research published in February 2023, Vanguard compared investing a sum all at once with splitting it into three equal parts invested a month apart. Across rolling one-year periods in several equity markets, lump-sum investing came out ahead between 61.6% and 73.7% of the time, which Vanguard summarises as "more than two-thirds of the time". The median advantage was 2.2% for a 100% equity portfolio. Cost averaging did better in the worst outcomes, so Vanguard says it can suit investors with high loss aversion who want to limit large drawdowns. It suggests keeping the averaging period short.
That research covers stock and bond indices, not crypto. Its main lesson still applies: averaging doesn't raise expected returns, but it lowers regret and the risk of putting everything in at a peak. What matters more is having a fixed rule written down before prices move, so that fear or excitement doesn't make the decision for you.
Step 4: Understand leverage before you go near it
Leverage multiplies both gains and losses. Ignoring fees and maintenance margin, a 10x position loses its whole margin after a move of about 10% against it, and a 50x position after about 2%. Real liquidation comes earlier because exchanges require maintenance margin. Crypto regularly moves several percent in a day, so high leverage leaves very little room for error. If you use it, size the position on the assumption that the margin can go to zero.
Step 5: Size positions so a crash can't force you to sell
On 10 January 2024, when the US SEC approved spot bitcoin exchange-traded products, it said: "Investors should remain cautious about the myriad risks associated with bitcoin and products whose value is tied to crypto." It also said: "we did not approve or endorse bitcoin." Regulated access doesn't make the asset less volatile. The habits that keep people invested through deep drawdowns don't depend on predictions:
- Only put in money you won't need for years, and keep an emergency fund outside crypto.
- Write down why you hold each asset and what would make you sell. Read it before you act in a panic.
- Plan exits the same way as entries, as predefined steps rather than a guess at the top.
- Know how your jurisdiction taxes disposals before you trade.
Checklist
- I can explain what each asset I hold does and how it can fail.
- I treat anyone who demands crypto, guarantees returns or contacts me out of the blue as a scammer until proven otherwise.
- My recovery phrase is offline, and I have tested a recovery.
- My two-factor authentication doesn't rely on SMS.
- I have a written buy rule, a written exit rule and a position size I can tolerate falling sharply.
- I don't use leverage I don't fully understand.
Limitations: the loss figures are estimates from reports and on-chain tracing, Chainalysis says its scam total may change as more wallets are identified, and the Vanguard results come from traditional markets, not crypto.
