The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart draws coloured bands around a curve fitted to Bitcoin's price history on a logarithmic scale. It shows whether today's price sits high or low compared with that long-run trend. It does not forecast anything. On 25 October 2026, the chart's home site, BlockchainCenter.net, captioned its snapshot "Bitcoin is dead at $80,525". That is the wording these charts use for the bottom of the rainbow. CoinGecko's market data showed BTC at about $80,342 that day, roughly 36% below the all-time high of $126,080 on 6 October 2025. The chart's own author writes that "there is no scientific basis underpinning it."
Where the chart stands now (25 October 2026)
- The reading. BlockchainCenter.net's snapshot for 25 October 2026 reads "Bitcoin is dead at $80,525". On charts that redraw the rainbow, "Bitcoin is dead" is the label commonly used for the lowest zone.
- Price. CoinGecko listed BTC at $80,342 on 25 October 2026. Its record is $126,080, set on 6 October 2025. Other trackers put that record between about $126,080 and $126,270, depending on the data feed.
- The model itself has changed. The site now leads with a "Dynamic Rainbow Chart". It "calculates the curve dynamically in real-time by fitting a Power Law regression across Bitcoin's entire daily price history since 2012". The page reports a 94.3% fit strength (R²) and marks cycle peaks and bottoms over a 180-day window. Because the curve is refitted as new prices arrive, a reading today may not match the same chart a year ago.
How the chart is built
Why a log scale
On a linear axis, a move from $100 to $1,000 looks tiny next to a move from $10,000 to $100,000. Both are tenfold rises. A logarithmic axis gives equal-percentage moves equal height. That is the only way 15 years of Bitcoin prices fit on one readable chart.
The regression curve
The curve comes from a Bitcointalk thread called "Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value". User Trolololo started it on 22 October 2014. The first post linked this formula:
10^(2.66167155005961 * ln(number of days since 2009 Jan 09) - 17.9183761889864)
Later in the thread the author added: "But it's just a model, not a crystal ball."
BlockchainCenter.net says its 2019 version used Trolololo's regression in the form y = 2.9065 ln(x) - 19.493.
The colour bands
The bands are evenly spaced channels above and below the curve. Cool colours (blue, green) mark prices below the trend. Yellow sits around it. Warm colours (orange, red) mark prices far above it.
The joke labels vary between sites that redraw the chart. Common examples, from bottom to top:
- "Fire Sale" or "Bitcoin is dead"
- "BUY!", "Accumulate", "Still Cheap"
- "HODL!" in the middle
- "Is this a bubble?", "FOMO intensifies"
- "Maximum Bubble Territory" at the top
Because each redraw uses its own set, read the legend on whichever version is in front of you.
A short history, with dates
| Date | What happened | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Reddit user azop posts rainbow bands on a log price chart to lift spirits in a bear market. The legend reads "Sell!", "Average", "Buy!". | BlockchainCenter.net |
| 22 Oct 2014 | Trolololo posts the logarithmic regression on Bitcointalk. | Bitcointalk |
| 19 May 2019 | BlockchainCenter.net's first live version appears on Reddit. | BlockchainCenter.net |
| 2020 | A tweet by Eric Wall makes the chart popular again. | BlockchainCenter.net |
| 2022 | BTC falls below $20,000 and breaks out of the bands. The author adds an indigo band rather than change the formula. Within weeks, price falls through that band too. | BlockchainCenter.net |
| 21 Nov 2022 | V2 launches. It uses "9 more years of data" and a new formula, because the 2014 curve was "too optimistic": its red band implied a price above $300,000. | BlockchainCenter.net |
| Later | The Dynamic Rainbow Chart, a power-law fit refreshed in real time. | BlockchainCenter.net |
For scale: BTC traded near $15,600 in November 2022. On 21 November 2022, investingLive reported a low of $15,588, the lowest since November 2020.
How far away is the next halving?
Enter the current block height and an average minutes-per-block pace to estimate the days left until block 1,050,000.
| Current block height | Average minutes per block | Estimated days until block 1,050,000 |
|---|---|---|
| 973,069 blocks | 10 min | 534 days |
| 973,069 blocks | 10 min | 534 days |
| 840,000 blocks | 10 min | 1,458 days |
- The subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks, so the halving after block 840,000 falls at block 1,050,000.
- Block height and minutes per block are your inputs; the result is block arithmetic, not a date anyone has fixed.
This estimates only when a block height is reached: real block times drift from the 10-minute target, and the result says nothing about price or which rainbow band BTC will sit in.
How to read it without fooling yourself
- Read it as a percentile, not a signal. The chart only answers one question: is the price high or low compared with a curve fitted to its own past?
- Check which model you are looking at. The original 2014 formula, V2 (2022) and the Dynamic chart can place the same price in different bands.
- Expect the curve to move. The model was redrawn after the 2022 break, and the Dynamic version refits all the time. A band that "held" in hindsight may only hold because the curve was moved to fit it.
- Set the halving in context. The block subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks; that number is set in Bitcoin Core's mainnet parameters. The last halving was at block 840,000 on 20 April 2024, when the reward fell from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. On 25 October 2026 the chain was at block 973,069. That leaves about 76,900 blocks to block 1,050,000. At the 10-minute target, that is roughly spring 2028 (an estimate, not a date).
- Check it against data the chart does not use. The rainbow uses price and time only. On-chain measures, covered in the models table below, add information about holders.
What the rainbow cannot see
- It is fitted backwards. Any curve fitted to all past prices will look as if it "worked" on those prices. The 2022 break and the V2 redraw show what happens when price leaves the range.
- Price is its only input. Liquidity, regulation, the collapse of a large intermediary and similar shocks are absent from a curve drawn against time.
- Its creator calls it a joke. BlockchainCenter.net calls the chart "a fun way of looking at the historical long term price movements". It says that "You can not predict the price of Bitcoin with a rainbow!" and that the charts "are not investment advice".
Related models
| Model | What it uses | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Power law | Log-log fit of price against time | This now underpins BlockchainCenter.net's Dynamic Rainbow Chart. |
| Stock-to-Flow | Existing supply divided by yearly new supply | PlanB published it in March 2019. It is widely criticised. BlockchainCenter.net's author calls it overhyped. |
| MVRV | Market cap divided by realized cap | Glassnode defines realized cap as the cost basis of supply. Above 1, the average coin is in unrealized profit; below 1, in unrealized loss. |
| Realized cap | Each coin valued at the price it last moved on-chain | The metric was created by Coin Metrics, which describes it as an estimate of aggregate cost basis. |
Unlike the rainbow, MVRV and realized cap use on-chain data. They can sometimes back up a rainbow reading and sometimes contradict it.
Frequently asked questions
Is the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart accurate?
It fits past prices because it was built from them, and it was redrawn after price broke out of it in 2022. Its creator says it has no scientific basis. It is a picture of the past, not a forecast.
Who created it?
Reddit user azop posted the rainbow-band idea in 2014. Bitcointalk user Trolololo posted the logarithmic regression on 22 October 2014. BlockchainCenter.net combined the two into an online chart in 2019, released V2 on 21 November 2022, and now runs the Dynamic Rainbow Chart.
What is the difference between V1 and V2?
V2 (21 November 2022) used nine more years of data and a new formula. The original curve had become too optimistic: its red band implied more than $300,000.
Can it be used for altcoins?
The method needs a long price history across several cycles. BlockchainCenter.net runs a separate Ethereum Rainbow Chart, but a shorter history gives a weaker fit.
