Nobody can reliably say where Ethereum Classic (ETC) will trade. What you can work out is how big each price target is. On 25 October 2026, CoinGecko shows ETC at about $7.52, with a market capitalisation of about $1.19 billion and 158.8 million coins in circulation. Its price is down roughly 53% over the past year and about 95% from its all-time high of $167.09 on 6 May 2021. At today's supply, $100 per ETC would mean a market cap of about $15.9 billion, roughly 13 times the current figure. The project's biggest planned change, the Olympia upgrade, now targets mainnet activation in 2027, not late 2026 as earlier announcements said.
The latest: Olympia moves to 2027
Olympia is the upgrade that would give Ethereum Classic a fee market and a protocol-funded treasury. The official Olympia page at ethereumclassic.com, checked on 25 October 2026, says the upgrade "targets mainnet activation in 2027". It lists the activation block as "TBD". The mainnet block will be set only after Olympia has "run cleanly" on the Mordor testnet. That replaces the July 2025 announcement on ethereumclassic.org, which aimed for the end of 2026. Many price articles still repeat that older date.
What has been confirmed:
- Client work: A note from March 2026 in the project's GitHub discussion says ECIP-1111, ECIP-1112 and ECIP-1121 are implemented in three execution clients and that work is "entering Mordor testnet phase". No Mordor activation block was published in the sources checked.
- ECIP-1111 (Base Fee Market and Redirection): This adds an EIP-1559-style base fee. On Ethereum the base fee is destroyed. Here it "is credited to the
SOVEREIGNTY_VAULTaddress rather than destroyed". Miners keep block rewards and priority-fee tips, which stay "unaffected". The specification is still marked Draft. - ECIP-1112 (treasury): This defines the contract at that vault address. The Olympia page describes binding governance by an Olympia DAO that uses non-transferable membership NFTs and OpenZeppelin Governor 5.x contracts.
- EVM alignment: The official pages do not agree on this part. One calls it "Glamsterdam-era" alignment and another calls it "Fusaka" alignment, and the ECIP numbers assigned to it differ. The final scope may still change.
Why it matters for price: For years, the main argument against ETC has been thin, donation-dependent development funding. A working treasury paid from fees would answer that argument. Two caveats apply. First, the treasury's income depends on how busy the chain is. Blockscout showed network utilisation of about 0.7% on 25 October 2026, so fee revenue would start small. Second, the timetable has already slipped once.
Supply: the fifth reward reduction has happened
Ethereum Classic's issuance follows ECIP-1017. The block reward falls by 20% every 5,000,000 blocks, starting from 5 ETC. The ECIP estimates that total supply "will not exceed 210.7M ETC". CoinGecko lists 210.7 million as the maximum supply.
The fifth reduction was due at block 25,000,001. A mining-pool announcement dated 20 July 2026 expected it on 23 July 2026. Blockscout showed the chain at block 25,604,738 on 25 October 2026, so the chain is in the sixth era. The base reward is now 1.6384 ETC, down from 2.048.
What that means in numbers (our estimates, excluding uncle rewards):
| Item | Figure | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Base block reward now | 1.6384 ETC | ECIP-1017 schedule, block height past 25,000,000 |
| Average block time | ~13.4 seconds | Blockscout, 25 Oct 2026 |
| New supply per year | ~3.9 million ETC (~2.4% of circulating) | 1.6384 ETC × ~6,450 blocks a day |
| Next reduction (to ~1.31 ETC) | Block 30,000,001, around late 2028 | ~4.4 million blocks at the current pace |
The reduction cuts new supply. It does not create demand. ETC's price fell over the past year, including the months around the July reduction.
The market-cap maths behind common price targets
Price targets only make sense next to the market cap they imply. The figures below use CoinGecko's circulating supply on 25 October 2026 (158.8 million ETC). By 2030, supply should be roughly 10% higher on the schedule above. Each target would then need a market cap about 10% larger than shown.
| ETC price | Implied market cap today | Multiple of 25 Oct 2026 market cap |
|---|---|---|
| $7.52 (25 Oct 2026) | ~$1.19B | 1x |
| $20 | ~$3.2B | ~2.7x |
| $50 | ~$7.9B | ~6.7x |
| $100 | ~$15.9B | ~13.3x |
| $167.09 (May 2021 high) | ~$26.5B | ~22x |
The 2021 high came when fewer coins were in circulation. Matching it today would need a much larger market cap than ETC had in 2021.
Third-party forecasts
Many websites publish ETC tables for 2026–2030. They disagree widely, and many are generated by algorithms or written by companies that sell crypto. We did not reproduce their numbers. The 2026 ranges in the earlier version of this article, $19–$80, are already contradicted by the market: ETC is at $7.52 in late October 2026. If you read such forecasts, convert each target into a market cap using the table above, and check whether the forecast still assumes Olympia goes live in 2026.
What market cap does your ETC price target imply?
Enter an ETC price target, a circulating supply and any extra supply growth to see the market cap that price would need.
| ETC price target | Circulating supply | Extra supply growth from new issuance | Implied market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 $ | 158.8 million ETC | 0 % | 15.9 $B |
| 20 $ | 158.8 million ETC | 0 % | 3.2 $B |
| 100 $ | 158.8 million ETC | 10 % | 17.5 $B |
- Price, supply and growth values are your inputs; the defaults come from the article's 25 October 2026 snapshot and its own estimates.
- Compare the result with ETC's market cap of about $1.19 billion on 25 October 2026 to see how many times larger it would need to be.
This is market-cap arithmetic only: it does not forecast whether or when ETC reaches any price, and leaves out demand, Olympia's timing, hashrate and wider market moves.
Security: from the 51% attacks to today
According to an ethereumclassic.org explainer, ETC suffered five 51% attacks: two in January 2019 (5 and 7 January) and three in August 2020. CoinDesk reported that the August 2020 attacks reorganised 3,693 blocks, then 4,000 blocks, then "over 7,000 blocks". The attacks worked because ETC shared a mining algorithm with the much larger Ethereum network but had a fraction of its hashpower. That made it cheap to briefly rent a majority of the hashpower.
The Merge (15 September 2022, ethereum.org) changed this. GPU miners leaving Ethereum moved to ETC. The Block reported a jump from 64 TH/s to 183 TH/s in a single day that month. Hashrate has since come down. A mining pool's estimate put the network at 139.41 TH/s on 18 September 2026.
MESS, the temporary defence against deep chain reorganisations, was switched off by default at block 19,250,000 under ECIP-1110. Today's protection therefore rests mainly on hashrate. A 51% attack has not become impossible. It has become more expensive.
What Ethereum Classic is
ETC is the original Ethereum chain that did not adopt the DAO fork of 20 July 2016 (block 1,920,000). That fork followed a hack that drained over 3.6 million ETH from The DAO contract. According to ethereum.org, miners who rejected the fork "went on to form" Ethereum Classic. ETC is a Proof-of-Work, EVM-compatible smart-contract chain. Ethereum moved to Proof of Stake in 2022. ETC has a capped, declining issuance, while Ethereum has no fixed supply cap.
Factors that could move ETC
Could push it up
- Olympia reaches mainnet and the treasury starts funding client and tooling work.
- Lower issuance after the July 2026 reduction, with another cut expected around late 2028.
- Demand for a Proof-of-Work smart-contract chain, and wider crypto market cycles. ETC has historically moved with them.
Could push it down
- Further Olympia delays, or disputes over how the treasury is governed.
- Low on-chain activity: about 0.7% network utilisation on 25 October 2026.
- Hashrate falling well below the post-Merge peak, which makes attacks cheaper.
- A weak trend: the price is down about 53% year on year.
FAQ
Can Ethereum Classic reach $100?
At today's supply, $100 means a market cap of about $15.9 billion, around 13 times its size on 25 October 2026. By 2030, rising supply pushes the requirement to roughly $17 billion. That is arithmetic, not a forecast.
When is the Olympia upgrade?
The official Olympia page targets mainnet activation in 2027, with no activation block set yet. It goes to the Mordor testnet first.
What is ETC's maximum supply?
ECIP-1017 estimates it will not exceed 210.7 million ETC. About 158.8 million were in circulation on 25 October 2026.
Did the 2026 reward reduction happen?
Yes. The chain passed block 25,000,000 (it was at 25,604,738 on 25 October 2026), and the base reward fell from 2.048 to 1.6384 ETC.
Limitations: prices and network figures are a snapshot from 25 October 2026, the hashrate is a single mining pool's estimate, and Olympia's scope and timing may change. This article is not investment advice.
