What Is a Death Cross Chart? Meaning, Track Record and Limits

A death cross chart shows an asset's 50-day moving average falling below its 200-day moving average. Technical analysts read it as a sign that a short-term pullback may be turning into a longer downtrend. Both averages are built from past prices, so the signal confirms weakness that has already happened. It does not predict the next move. Over the past 50 years, the S&P 500 had often made its low before the cross appeared. Bitcoin's most recent daily death cross, on 16 November 2025, was cancelled by a golden cross in September 2026.

The latest signal: Bitcoin, November 2025 to September 2026

• 16 November 2025. Bitcoin's 50-day moving average crossed below its 200-day average with the price near $93,000. That was about six weeks after a record high near $126,000 on 6 October 2025 (24/7 Wall St., 24 November 2025). The same report said the three earlier crosses of this cycle (September 2023, August 2024 and April 2025) had each come close to a major local low.
• 8 September 2026. CoinDesk reported that the 50-day simple moving average had risen back above the 200-day average, which is a golden cross, with Bitcoin at about $78,650. CoinDesk counted 12 Bitcoin golden crosses in its history and said only three of them held for a full year.

Bitcoin was lower at the golden cross than at the death cross ten months earlier. A crossover is a description of a trend that has already formed. It is not a price target.

How a death cross forms

A simple moving average (SMA) is the average closing price over a set number of periods. Each day the oldest price drops out and the newest one is added. The 50-day SMA follows the medium-term trend and the 200-day SMA follows the long-term trend. StockCharts' ChartSchool calls a 50/200 SMA system "medium-term, perhaps even long-term."

The pattern has three stages:

1. Before the cross. The 50-day average sits above the 200-day average and prices have been rising.
2. The cross. Prices fall far enough and long enough to pull the 50-day average below the 200-day average.
3. After the cross. If the 50-day average stays below, the downtrend is still in place. If it climbs back above soon, the signal was a whipsaw.

The golden cross is the opposite: the 50-day average moves above the 200-day average.

SMA or EMA?

The standard death cross uses simple moving averages. An exponential moving average (EMA) gives more weight to recent prices. ChartSchool notes that this reduces lag. The trade-off is that faster averages react more to day-to-day noise. Different data sources can also put the same cross on different dates. In September 2026, reports of Bitcoin's golden cross gave dates several days apart depending on whether they used SMAs or EMAs.

What the record shows

US stocks

The most detailed recent figures come from April 2025, when the S&P 500 formed a death cross during a tariff-driven sell-off.

• Reuters, using LSEG data (14 April 2025). The S&P 500 had formed 24 death crosses in about 50 years. In 54% of them, the index had already hit its maximum intraday decline before the cross appeared. In the other cases the sell-off continued, with an average further fall of 19% from the cross. The crosses of 1981, 2000 and 2007 came before total declines of 21%, 45% and 55%.
• Bank of America (Paul Ciana, nearly 100 years of data, via Reuters). Twenty days after a death cross, the S&P 500 was lower 52% of the time, with an average loss of 0.5%. Thirty days after, it was higher 60% of the time, with an average gain of 0.8%.
• LPL Research (Adam Turnquist, via Business Insider, 19 April 2025). Since 1950, the S&P 500's average returns 3, 6 and 12 months after a death cross were all positive. The index was higher 12 months later 72% of the time. When the cross came within a month of a 15% drawdown, it was higher 12 months later 83% of the time, with an average return of 16%. Turnquist said "the name is not as ominous as it may sound."

The pattern in these figures is consistent. A few crosses came before deep bear markets, including 2007 and 2000. Most came late, after much of the fall had already happened.

Bitcoin

• 30 March 2018. Fortune reported that this cross came after Bitcoin had already fallen about 60% between December 2017 and February 2018. Bitcoin rallied over the following month.
• March 2020. According to Fortune, the cross came after the low, and the price then rallied.
• 21 June 2021. The 50-day average fell below the 200-day average. The next day Bitcoin briefly traded below $29,026 before recovering above $32,000 (Fortune, 22 June 2021).
• 16 November 2025. See above. This cross was reversed on 8 September 2026.

Crypto prices are more volatile than large stock indices, so the averages cross back and forth more often. The Bitcoin sample is also small, which makes percentage statistics unreliable.

How to read a death cross on a chart

1. Open a daily chart. Weekly charts move more slowly. Hourly and four-hour charts give many more crossovers.
2. Add a 50-period SMA and a 200-period SMA, and give the two lines different colours.
3. Find the point where the 50-period line crosses below the 200-period line.
4. Check the context:

- Distance from the high. How far has the price already fallen? Reuters and LPL found that late crosses after deep drawdowns were often followed by recoveries. - Trend strength. Is the market trending or moving sideways? ChartSchool warns that "when there's no strong trend, a moving average crossover system will produce many whipsaws." - Slope of the 200-day average. Is it rising, flat or falling? A cross while the long-term average still rises is weaker evidence of a new downtrend than a cross while both averages are falling. - Other evidence. Look at trading volume and momentum indicators. Treat the cross as one input, not as a trigger on its own.

Many charting tools let you set an alert for when one moving average crosses another, so you do not have to watch the chart.

Limitations

• Lag. Both averages are built from past prices, and ChartSchool says crossovers "produce relatively late signals." In more than half of the S&P 500 cases Reuters counted, the low came before the cross.
• Whipsaws. In sideways markets the two averages cross back and forth repeatedly.
• No size or duration. The cross does not tell you how far or how long a decline will run. After a cross, the S&P 500 has fallen 55% in some cases and risen within weeks in others.
• Settings matter. SMA versus EMA, the choice of periods and the data source can all change the date of a cross.
• Small samples. About two dozen S&P 500 crosses in 50 years, and fewer for Bitcoin, are too few to produce reliable probabilities.

Frequently asked questions

Is a death cross bearish?

It is generally read as bearish because it shows recent prices well below the long-term average. The historical record is mixed. LPL found the S&P 500 higher 12 months after a death cross 72% of the time since 1950.

What is the difference between a death cross and a golden cross?

In a death cross, the 50-day average falls below the 200-day average. In a golden cross, the 50-day average rises above it. Bitcoin had a death cross on 16 November 2025 and a golden cross reported on 8 September 2026.

Does the death cross work for crypto?

You can calculate it the same way on any price series. On Bitcoin, several crosses have come close to local lows, including March 2018, March 2020 and the 2023–2025 crosses cited by 24/7 Wall St. High volatility means more false signals.

These figures cover the S&P 500 and Bitcoin over limited samples and do not predict future price moves.