Bitcoin Foundation defines a bear market as "a time when prices keep going down in a major market or a class of assets." Its rule of thumb comes from traditional finance. A market is in a bear phase once a price falls 20% or more from its recent high and remains under that high for at least two months. By its account, crypto bear markets have run roughly one to three years. Arkham says crypto declines of 70-90% from peak values are not uncommon in severe bear markets.
Key facts from Bitcoin Foundation
- Definition: Prices keep going down across a major market or asset class.
- Rule from traditional finance: A fall of 20% or more from a recent high, with the price under that high for at least two months.
- Crypto falls: Falls of 50, 70 or even 80 percent before a bottom.
- Length in crypto: Roughly one to three years, and each cycle is different.
Key facts from Arkham
- Severe crypto falls: Declines of 70-90% from peak are not uncommon.
- Bitcoin in 2022: A 76% fall from November 2021 to December 2022.
How far crypto has fallen past 20%
Bitcoin Foundation sets the two yardsticks side by side. A conventional stock market might only enter a bear phase when a decline reaches 20 percent. Crypto markets have dropped 50, 70 or even 80 percent before hitting a bottom. Arkham gives a Bitcoin example from that range: a 76% fall from November 2021 to December 2022.
The 20% line next to crypto's past falls
Sort by the upper fall figure each outlet states to rank the stock-market threshold against crypto's past falls.
| Measure | Fall from peak, upper figure stated (%) | As the outlet states it | Outlet | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock-market bear threshold | 20 | Bear phase once a decline reaches 20 percent | Bitcoin Foundation | Source: What Is a Bear Market and Why Is Crypto Crashing? - Bitcoin Foundation (bitcoinfoundation.org), accessed Oct 14, 2026 |
| Crypto falls before a bottom | 80 | Falls of 50, 70 or even 80 percent | Bitcoin Foundation | Source: What Is a Bear Market and Why Is Crypto Crashing? - Bitcoin Foundation (bitcoinfoundation.org), accessed Oct 14, 2026 |
| Severe crypto bear markets | 90 | Declines of 70-90% from peak not uncommon | Arkham | Source: Trading Strategies for a Bear Market (info.arkm.com), accessed Oct 14, 2026 |
| Bitcoin, 2022 bear market | 76 | From November 2021 to December 2022 | Arkham | Source: Trading Strategies for a Bear Market (info.arkm.com), accessed Oct 14, 2026 |
The fall column shows the upper figure of each stated range, so the 80 and 90 rows stand for ranges that start lower.
How long crypto bear markets last
Bitcoin Foundation puts crypto bear markets at roughly one to three years. Each cycle is different, it says. Arkham's account of 2018 shows how a single cycle split. Bitcoin took about one year to bottom out at around $3,000. It then needed two more years to break its prior all-time high. The 2022 bear market lasted a similar time, by the same account.
Bear market or crypto winter?
Bitcoin Foundation draws a line between the two terms. A crypto winter is an informal name for a long bear market, usually one lasting more than a year. All such winters are bear markets. Not every bear market lasts long enough to earn the name.
Why altcoins can fall further
Bitcoin Foundation says altcoins usually rise faster than Bitcoin in bull phases. They also fall harder in bear phases.
What a bear market looks like on a chart
Arkham describes the pattern as it unfolds. Lower highs and lower lows dominate the price. That creates a clear downtrend across most timeframes. Trading volumes often shrink as participants exit positions or wait on the sidelines. A separate explainer covers how to tell if crypto is overbought and where that test falls short.
When a bear market ends
Arkham says many analysts call a bear market over once prices rally 20% from their lows and hold that level. The definition varies across markets and investors. Bitcoin Foundation is blunter: "No one has figured out a reliable way to predict when a bear market would end."
Analysis: the label says a fall started, not how deep it goes
Arkham's start rule needs a 20% fall and a downtrend over a sustained timeframe, with no fixed period. Bitcoin Foundation's rule is not met until the price has also stayed below its high for at least two months. Neither label says where the bottom will be. Past crypto falls have gone far past 20%, including the 76% drop in 2022. The common end rule has the same gap. After a fall like that one, a 20% rally from the low would still leave Bitcoin far below its old peak. The 2018 account points the same way, because the climb back took longer than the fall. With no reliable way to time the end, the more answerable question is how long a holder could wait, not when the decline stops.
The normal rule of thumb, taken from traditional finance, is that if the price drops by 20% or more from its recent high and stays below it for at least two months, the market is in a bear phase.
What is confirmed and what is not
Both outlets set the start of a bear market at a fall of 20% or more from a recent high. They differ on time and depth. Bitcoin Foundation requires the price to stay below that high for at least two months. Its crypto falls run to 50, 70 or even 80 percent before a bottom. Arkham asks only for a downtrend over a sustained timeframe. It puts severe declines at 70-90% from peak. It alone gives Bitcoin figures by cycle, such as the 2018 bottom at around $3,000 and the 76% fall in 2022. Neither page states a publication date in its text or gives a dated reading of the current market. So these sources do not settle whether crypto is in a bear market as of October 2026. Their figures are not checked against price data. The duration figures rest on a few past cycles.
Sources: What Is a Bear Market and Why Is Crypto Crashing? - Bitcoin Foundation (bitcoinfoundation.org), accessed Oct 14, 2026 · Trading Strategies for a Bear Market (info.arkm.com), accessed Oct 14, 2026
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