An ascending triangle is a chart pattern with a flat resistance line on top and a rising support line below. StockCharts' ChartSchool calls it "a bullish formation that usually forms as a continuation pattern during an uptrend". The bias is real but far from certain. In Thomas Bulkowski's statistics, ascending triangles in bull markets broke upward 63% of the time. That means about one in three broke down. Traders treat a close above resistance as the signal. They estimate a target by projecting the pattern's height upward from the breakout point.
What the pattern looks like
Two lines converge toward a point called the apex:
- Flat resistance. Two or more reaction highs stop at about the same price.
- Rising support. Two or more reaction lows form, each higher than the one before.
The usual reading is that sellers defend a fixed price while buyers step in at higher prices on each pullback. ChartSchool describes the rising lows as increasing buying pressure and the flat top as overhead supply.
Rules that make it valid
ChartSchool and Bulkowski set slightly different minimums:
| Rule | ChartSchool | Bulkowski (ThePatternSite) |
|---|---|---|
| Touches | At least two highs and two higher lows | One trendline needs at least three touches, the other at least two |
| Lows | "If a more recent reaction low is equal to or less than the previous reaction low, then the ascending triangle is not valid." | Bottom trendline slopes upward |
| Shape | Flat top, rising bottom | Price should cross the pattern from side to side and fill the triangle |
| Volume | Usually contracts as the pattern forms | Trends downward at least 78% of the time |
| Duration | A few weeks to many months, typically one to three months | Not stated |
An equal or lower low breaks the pattern under ChartSchool's rule. The setup is then no longer an ascending triangle.
Continuation or reversal
ChartSchool says the pattern usually continues an existing uptrend but occasionally appears at the end of a downtrend as a reversal. Bulkowski found that what came before the pattern mattered. Triangles preceded by a 3-to-6-month rise averaged a 49% gain after an upward breakout, against 43% for all upward breakouts.
What the statistics say
Bulkowski's bull-market results are based on "more than 1,400 perfect trades" (page updated 9 July 2025):
| Measure | Upward breakout | Downward breakout |
|---|---|---|
| Share of breakouts | 63% | 37% (implied) |
| Break-even failure rate | 17% | 38% |
| Average move after breakout | 43% rise | 13% decline |
| Throwback / pullback rate | 64% | 63% |
| Reached the price target | 70% | 44% |
| Performance rank | 16 of 39 | 30 of 36 |
Three findings are useful in practice:
- Downside breaks are common. Treat the pattern as a tilt toward the upside, not a guarantee.
- Breakouts happen on average 64% of the way to the apex. Bulkowski also notes that price often turns when it reaches the apex. A triangle that drifts to its tip without breaking out has lost its clean structure.
- Retests are the norm. About two thirds of upward breakouts returned to the breakout area (a throwback), and Bulkowski says throwbacks hurt post-breakout performance.
The page does not name the market or period behind these figures. Its worked examples are individual stocks, so the numbers may not carry over to crypto or forex.
How to confirm a breakout
Close, not wick. Use a candle close above resistance as the signal. A spike through the line that reverses before the close does not count.
Volume. ChartSchool says the upside breakout should come with expanded volume, but adds: "While volume confirmation is preferred, it is not always necessary."
Momentum indicators (optional). Some traders add RSI or MACD as a filter. ChartSchool notes that in bull markets RSI tends to find support in the 40–50 zone, using Wilder's default 14-period setting. No source checked here shows that these filters improve ascending triangle results specifically.
Volume differs by market
- Stocks. Volume comes from exchanges and is the cleanest of the three.
- Forex. The foreign exchange market trades over the counter. The BIS Triennial Survey measured it at $9.6 trillion per day in April 2025, up from $7.5 trillion in 2022. With no central exchange, there is no complete volume figure. Charting platforms usually show tick volume, which counts price updates and is only a proxy. On-Balance Volume, created by Joe Granville in 1963, is built from volume data. It inherits the same limitation in forex.
- Crypto. Trading is spread across many venues, and reported volume has been unreliable. In March 2019, Bitwise Asset Management told the SEC that 95% of reported bitcoin trading volume was fake or non-economic. That figure is now seven years old and is context only. Compare volume within one venue or a vetted aggregate rather than raw totals. Crypto markets trade around the clock, so a "daily close" depends on the time zone your chart uses.
Where does the measured move point?
Enter the flat resistance, the lowest low at the start of the triangle and how much of the height to project, and see the price target.
| Horizontal resistance (the breakout level) | Lowest low at the start of the triangle | Share of the pattern height to project | Price target after an upward breakout |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 42 | 70 % | 55.6 |
| 50 | 42 | 100 % | 58 |
| 50 | 42 | 70 % | 55.6 |
- Prices are your own inputs; the defaults repeat the article's hypothetical example ($50 resistance, $42 low, $8 height).
- At 100% the result is the full measured move ($58.00 in the example); at 70% it is Bulkowski's adjusted target ($55.60), based on 70% of upward breakouts reaching the full target in his data.
This is arithmetic on your inputs only: it does not confirm a valid pattern or a breakout, does not cover downward breakouts, and a target is a guideline, not a forecast.
The measured move
ChartSchool's method takes the widest distance within the pattern and adds it to the breakout point. Bulkowski adjusts this. He multiplies the height by the share of patterns that reached the full target (70% for upward breakouts) and adds the result to the breakout price.
Worked example (hypothetical prices):
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Horizontal resistance | $50.00 |
| Lowest low at the start of the triangle | $42.00 |
| Height | $8.00 |
| Full measured-move target ($50 + $8) | $58.00 |
| Bulkowski-adjusted target ($50 + $8 × 0.70) | $55.60 |
ChartSchool says targets are guidelines. Use other analysis to decide when to exit.
Stops and the retest
Bulkowski suggests placing a stop on the side opposite the breakout, near the minor lows inside the pattern for an upward breakout, "unless that would be too far away". Throwbacks are frequent, so a stop placed just below the breakout level can be hit by a normal retest. A stop below the most recent higher low gives the trade more room, at the cost of a larger loss per unit if it fails.
Two common entry styles follow from this:
- On the breakout close. You enter earlier and are more exposed to failed breakouts.
- On the retest. You wait for price to come back to the old resistance, which ChartSchool notes "turns into support", and enter if it holds. The stop can sit closer, but in roughly a third of upward breakouts no retest comes.
Position size arithmetic
Position size = money at risk ÷ (entry − stop). For example, with a $150 risk budget, a $50.25 entry and a $47.50 stop, the risk per unit is $2.75. That gives 54 units, about $2,714 of exposure. Leverage changes the margin needed but not this arithmetic.
Patterns it is often confused with
| Pattern | Upper line | Lower line | Bias (ChartSchool) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ascending triangle | Flat | Rising | Bullish |
| Descending triangle | Falling | Flat | Bearish |
| Symmetrical triangle | Falling | Rising | None until breakout; more often continues the trend |
| Rising wedge | Rising, more slowly | Rising | Bearish, as reversal or continuation |
The rising wedge is the most expensive mix-up. Both have rising lows, but in a wedge the highs keep rising too. ChartSchool: "Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), rising wedges are bearish." To tell them apart, look at the top line. A flat top is a triangle; a rising top is a wedge. The falling wedge guide covers the wedge family. If chart reading is new to you, start with how to read crypto charts.
Checklist
- Two or more equal highs (Bulkowski: three touches on one line)
- Each low higher than the last; an equal or lower low invalidates the pattern
- Volume fading during the pattern
- Breakout before price reaches the apex
- A candle close above resistance, ideally on rising volume
- Target set in advance (full height, or 70% of it per Bulkowski)
- Stop set in advance, with room for a throwback
Limitations: the performance figures come from a single source (Bulkowski) and were apparently measured on stocks; nothing here is trading or investment advice.
