A bull market is a long stretch of rising prices with optimistic sentiment. The usual numeric test comes from stock markets. The SEC's investor education site, Investor.gov, says a bull market generally occurs when a broad market index rises 20% or more over at least two months. Crypto guides borrow the 20% figure, but they often drop the time condition. No official body declares bull or bear markets in crypto, so the label is a convention, not a measurement.
The standard definition
Investor.gov, run by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, describes a bull market as "a time when stock prices are rising and market sentiment is optimistic." Its numeric test has three parts:
- Size: a rise of 20% or more
- Scope: in a broad market index, not one stock
- Time: over at least a two-month period
Its bear market definition mirrors this: a broad market index falls by 20% or more over at least two months. FINRA's investor guide uses the same 20% line for a bear market but gives no time window.
The word "generally" matters. These are rules of thumb used in investor education. They are not legal or regulatory thresholds.
How crypto guides use the 20% figure
Crypto educational pages keep the number and loosen the rest.
- CoinLedger (undated page) says: "In a bull market, cryptocurrency prices are up by at least 20%," and uses the same figure for falls in a bear market. It gives no time period and no reference point, so the page does not say what the 20% is measured from.
- Tangem (published 14 March 2025, updated 20 September 2026) gives the figure only in a comparison table: "Up at least 20% over extended periods." In the text, it describes a bull market as a time when "crypto prices keep climbing for weeks, months, or even years," and says it "isn't just about prices going up for a few days."
Both pages are educational content from crypto companies, not neutral standards bodies.
Three gaps when you apply the rule to crypto
No broad index by default. The stock market rule points to an index such as a broad equity benchmark. Crypto has no single index that everyone uses as the reference. In practice, people usually mean Bitcoin's price, or the total market value of all coins. These can disagree, so one coin can be in a bull market while others are not.
No time condition. Without one, a one-week spike and a year-long climb can both pass the "up 20%" test. The two-month condition on Investor.gov exists to filter out short bursts. Crypto prices often move 20% in much less time, so the test without a time condition says very little.
The starting point is often unstated. A rise is measured from a low, but which low? The test gives different answers depending on whether you start from the lowest close of the year, of the last cycle, or of last month.
How much rise undoes a fall?
Enter how far a price fell from its peak to see the rise it needs to get back to that peak.
| Fall from the earlier peak | Rise needed to get back to the earlier peak |
|---|---|
| 20 % | 25 % |
| 20 % | 25 % |
| 50 % | 100 % |
- The fall is your own input, measured from the earlier peak down to the low.
- The result is the rise from that low, so a 20% rise from the low can still leave the price well below the peak.
This is arithmetic on the fall you enter: it does not say whether a market counts as a bull market, which index or starting low to use, or where prices go next.
A worked example (hypothetical numbers)
Say a coin falls from 100 to a low of 50, then rises to 60.
- From the low, that is a 20% rise, so it passes the size test.
- It is still 40% below the earlier peak.
- Losses and gains are not symmetrical. A 20% fall needs a 25% rise to get back to where it started. A 50% fall needs a 100% rise.
So a market can meet the "bull market" definition while most holders are still at a loss. The label tells you the direction from the low. It does not tell you that prices have recovered.
Bull market vs. bull run
CoinLedger treats a bull run as narrower than a bull market: "an intense phase within a bull market where crypto prices rise quickly." Many writers use the two terms interchangeably. If an article says "bull run," check whether it means a fast spike or the whole uptrend.
Signs people point to
CoinLedger lists these as signs often linked to crypto bull markets:
- New all-time highs: "Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies breaking past previous all-time highs is often seen as a major signal of a bull market."
- More participation: more sign-ups and more activity in NFTs and DeFi
- Higher trading volume
- More media attention
- Sentiment gauges such as fear and greed indexes
None of these confirms a bull market by itself. Most of them also show up during short rallies that later reverse. They describe conditions you can see now. They do not predict where prices go next.
What this means for readers
- When someone says crypto is "in a bull market," ask which asset or index they mean, how much it rose, from which low, and over what period.
- The 20% rule is a description after the fact. A market only qualifies once the rise has already happened.
- For the mirror case, see our explainer on how long crypto bear markets last.
Limitations: these are conventions from investor education pages, not official rules. No authority defines or declares bull markets in crypto.
